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Strong rebound in the second half of FY10 drives Indian growth rate upwards: Review of the Economy-2009-10
Dr. C. Rangarajan, Chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister
released the document Review of the Economy-2009-10 at a Press Conference in New Delhi
today. Following are the highlights of the document:
Strong rebound in the second half of 2009-10 drives growth rate upwards
Strong rebound in the third and fourth quarter especially industry
Outcome in the farm sector much better than feared earlier in part due to proactive
measures by government
Projected growth 7.2% in 2009/10, 8.2% in 2010/11 and 9.0% in 2011/12
In 2009/10:
Agriculture : -0.2 % (1.6% in 2008/09)
Industry (including construction) : 8.6% (3.9% in 2008/09)
Services: 8.7 % (9.8% in 2008/09)
Growth may be even higher than 7.2%, driven by strong revival in manufacturing and
construction
Developed countries have come out of recession but it is a weak recovery with downside
risks to growth
Financial markets nervous about fiscal sustainability massive increase in risk aversion
Worsening of budgetary positions in advanced economies
Speculative pressure on commodity prices, especially the sharp rise in crude oil prices
Sharp fall in investment rate in 2008/09 reversed in 2009/10
Estimated investment rate in 2009/10: 36.2% (34.9% in 2008/09). Will pick up with
improvement in domestic conditions.
Estimated savings rate 34.0% in 2009/10 (32.5% in 2008/09) will improve in the
subsequent years due to fiscal consolidation by government
Damage to Kharif output restricted, Rabi output to be higher than last year
Wheat output will be almost equal and pulses slightly higher than last year
Output of Kharif rice lower by 12 million tonnes but Rabi rice higher than last year.
Output of oilseeds, coarse cereals and sugarcane will be lower
Government wheat and rice stocks to be comfortable
Strong recovery in manufacturing output will drive growth
Recovery in manufacturing output from June 2009
Q3 growth 14.3% (0.5% in 2008/09) , Q4 will be higher at 14.6% (0.3% in 2008/09)
Current Account Deficit : - 2.2 % of GDP in 2009/10 ( - 2.4 % in 2008/09)
Export recovery slower than expected, projected at $168.7 billion in 2009/10
Imports to show significant improvement in Q4. Projected at $296.8 billion in 2009/10
Projected merchandise trade deficit for 2009/10:$ 128.1 billion or 9.8 % of GDP.
Projected net invisibles: $98.6 billion. Strong growth in remittances and recovery in service
exports.
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