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Mid-Quarter Monetary Policy Review: June 2011
-Announced on the 16th June 2011 by Dr. D. Subbarao, Governor, Reserve Bank of India
Domestic Economy (contd)
Liquidity Conditions
During the current fiscal year so far, liquidity conditions have remained consistent with the anti-inflationary stance of monetary policy. The Government’s cash balances moved from a surplus of ` 89,000 crore on an average during Q4 of 2010-11 to a deficit of ` 29,000 crore during Q1 of 2011-12 (up to June 15, 2011). Consequently, net injection of liquidity through LAF repos declined from an average of ` 84,000 crore during Q4 of 2010-11 to ` 41,000 crore in 2011-12 (up to June 15, 2011). The net liquidity injection by the Reserve Bank was higher at ` 60,000 crore as on June 15, 2011. As articulated in the May 3 Policy Statement, the Reserve Bank will continue to maintain liquidity conditions such that neither surplus liquidity dilutes the monetary policy stance nor large deficit chokes off fund flows to productive sectors of the economy.
Summing Up
To sum up, the domestic growth outlook as indicated in the Annual Monetary Statement of May 3 remains unchanged. However, given the high degree of integration with the global economy, recent global macroeconomic developments pose some risks to domestic growth. Domestic inflation remains high and much above the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank. Particularly, non-food manufactured products inflation rose in May 2011 after showing some moderation in April 2011. Domestic fuel prices do not yet reflect the current trends of global prices. Although global commodity prices moderated in recent weeks, it is too early to downgrade this as a risk factor. Monetary transmission has strengthened. The impact of the Reserve Bank’s recent monetary policy actions is still unfolding. The challenge of containing inflation and anchoring inflation expectations persists. Thus, while the Reserve Bank needs to continue with its anti-inflationary stance, the extent of policy action needs to balance the adverse movements in inflation with recent global developments and their likely impact on the domestic growth trajectory.
Expected Outcomes
The policy action in this Review is expected to:
contain inflation and anchor inflationary expectations by reining in demand side pressures; and
mitigate the risk to growth from potentially adverse global developments.
Guidance
Based on the current and evolving growth and inflation scenario, the Reserve Bank will need to persist with its anti-inflationary stance of monetary policy.
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