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According to StanChart’s ‘Global Markets Annual 2004’ the rupee has mirrored the dollar’s decline and has not appreciated on a real effective exchange rate basis so far. The rupee is cheap with respect to relative purchasing power parity valuations. The rupee is likely to touch 43.50 by the end of calendar 2004 and will be at around 45-45.25 against the dollar by the end of March, even as imports rise.
The report in its overview for India for 2004, added that the falling primary commodity prices should keep the average inflation at around 4.5 per cent in 2004. It also added that from November 2003-March 2004, the industrial growth would average above eight per cent year-on-year.
India’s foreign exchange (forex) reserves are expected to reach $114 billion to $115 billion by the end of 2004.
StanChart has also observed that regulatory developments in the country have been very positive. Some of the regulatory developments that the bank pointed out include, domestic currency options being allowed, introduction of interest rate futures, liberalisation of foreign exchange policies and external commercial borrowing guidelines. The introduction of coupon-only swap, cross-currency swaps and quanto-swaps and vanilla domestic currency forex options were also pointed out by the bank as important market developments.
according to the report, at the end of the second quarter of 2004, the six-month London inter-bank offered rate is likely to be at 1.9 per cent, the 10-year benchmark government security at 5.10 per cent and the repo rate also at the current level of 4.5 per cent. Short-term interest rates can come off based on liquidity.
.... Click for ECBs, External Commercial Borrowings
.... Click for Spot Rates for major global currencies
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