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"After a run of troublesome years, has “India's decade” dawned at last?"-
(An extract from "The Economist" Article)
ONLY a year ago, India seemed in a sorry state. Tension with Pakistan had recently reached such a pitch that nuclear war did not seem inconceivable. An Indian state, Gujarat, had witnessed appalling communal violence between Hindus and Muslims. The economy, after years of drought, was limping along at an annual growth rate of just 4%, not enough to change the fortunes of a nation of a billion people, a quarter of them living in severe poverty.
One year on, in the phrase of its government's propaganda campaign, “India is shining”. The risk of war seems remote and a historic settlement with Pakistan seems possible. Recent state election campaigns have been marked not by communal antagonism, but voters' mature disgruntlement over bad and corrupt government, pot-holed roads, poisonous water and meagre power supplies. The economy, blessed by a lavish monsoon, is growing by 8% a year or more.
Hotels are full of foreigners newly alive to India's potential as both a market and an “outsourcing” destination. India fared well in a cricket series in Australia. Indian politicians, businessmen, diplomats and journalists are relishing the new sense of self-confidence. India, said to have been “emerging” for years, has at last come out. This is India's decade, crow the optimists; India's century, echo true patriots.
These are big hopes on the back of a solitary good year, and caution is advisable. After a dozen years of opening up and liberalising, India's economy is still relatively small by global measures. With 17% of the world's people, it accounts for less than 2% of global GDP and 1% of world trade. To take the most obvious comparison, China last year saw an increase in its two-way trade with the world of roughly double India's total trade.
But this survey will argue that this is indeed a moment of shining economic opportunity for India, and that if Mr Vajpayee's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) succeeds in leading its coalition to another election victory, it should be better placed to take advantage of it, and pursue the necessary reform, than has been any government in recent years.
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Reacting to "The Economist" survey, Union finance minister Jaswant Singh said that under the head ‘India Survey’ whatever The Economist has said should not be taken as the last word. Whatever has been analysed by the journal was nothing but assessments of the journalists and they were free to do it. Various other journals and economists had praised the way our economy was moving and there were many positive aspects to boast that Indian economy was far better than what it used to be 50 years ago, he added.
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